Every bettor eventually faces the age-old question: should you play it safe and bet the favorite, or take a chance on the underdog? It’s a debate that’s shaped betting strategies across every major sport—and the truth is, both approaches can be smart when used in the right context.
To choose wisely, you need to understand how odds are set, where the value lies, and how psychology plays into betting lines. Here’s a breakdown of the pros and cons of favorites vs. underdogs, and when each offers the best potential return.
What Do Favorites and Underdogs Really Mean?
- Favorite: The team or player expected to win. They come with lower odds, meaning lower risk and lower reward.
- Underdog: The team or player expected to lose. They have higher odds, offering greater payouts—but with a lower chance of winning.
The odds reflect public perception and bookmaker risk, not always the true probability of an outcome. That’s where smart bettors look for value.
Pros and Cons of Betting on Favorites
✅ Pros:
- Higher win rate: Favorites win more often, especially in sports like tennis or MMA where skill gaps are clearer.
- Predictable outcomes: Backing teams with strong form or elite rosters often leads to consistent (if smaller) returns.
- Useful for parlays: Favorites can be combined to boost total payout with lower perceived risk.
❌ Cons:
- Lower payouts: You need to stake more to win less.
- Overpriced odds: The public often overbets favorites, pushing odds too low for real value.
- Less value long-term: If you’re not selective, betting favorites can lose money over time due to juiced lines.
Pros and Cons of Betting on Underdogs
✅ Pros:
- Bigger payouts: You can win more with less risked capital.
- More market inefficiencies: Oddsmakers sometimes undervalue underdogs, especially if public sentiment is lopsided.
- Potential for reverse line movement: If sharp money is backing the underdog, it can signal a smart play.
❌ Cons:
- Lower hit rate: You’ll lose more bets than you win.
- More volatility: Results are harder to predict, especially in high-variance sports like NFL or March Madness.
- Requires deeper research: You’ll need to dig into matchup data, form, and injuries to justify the pick.
When to Bet on Favorites
- When the line offers value despite being low (e.g., -120 instead of -200)
- In low-variance sports like tennis, where the best players usually win
- After analyzing stats that strongly support a one-sided matchup
- If you plan to hedge or use conservative parlays
Tip: Avoid blindly betting favorites in popular games—public bias often inflates their odds.
When to Bet on Underdogs
- When line movement indicates sharp money backing the dog
- In high-variance sports like NFL, NCAA basketball, or UFC
- When a team is mispriced due to public overreaction
- If you’ve spotted a matchup advantage, like rest days or defensive mismatches
Tip: You don’t have to win often with underdogs—just enough to stay profitable due to higher odds.
The Smarter Approach: Value Betting
Rather than choosing favorites or underdogs based on labels, the smartest approach is to focus on value—when the odds are better than the true probability of an outcome.
For example:
- If you think an underdog has a 40% chance to win, and the odds imply only 30%, that’s a value bet.
- If a favorite is priced too short (e.g., -250 when they’re not that dominant), it may not be worth the risk.
Value betting looks beyond the labels and focuses on finding inefficiencies in the market.
Final Thoughts: Don’t Bet the Label—Bet the Edge
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to whether favorites or underdogs are the smarter bet. What matters most is context, analysis, and value. Backing favorites can deliver steady wins, but betting underdogs can bring big returns—if done right.
To make smarter bets:
- Compare odds to your own projections
- Track line movement and public money
- Stay disciplined with bankroll management
- Avoid emotional picks based solely on hype
In the end, it’s not about who’s expected to win—it’s about where the odds give you an edge.